Tigray at the Centre as Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward War

Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward War as Tigray Conflict Reverses Old Alliance

Ethiopia and Eritrea, whose armies fought side by side during the devastating war in Tigray, now face the prospect of fighting each other as renewed hostilities in northern Ethiopia deepen their political and military confrontation.

Tigray is again at the centre of the crisis. Ethiopian government forces have advanced north toward the Eritrean border, while Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of sending troops into Ethiopian territory and supporting armed groups fighting the federal government. Eritrea denies the accusations and says Ethiopia is preparing the ground for aggression.

The confrontation marks a dramatic reversal of the alliance that shaped the 2020–2022 war. During that conflict, Eritrean forces joined Ethiopia’s federal army against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, the powerful political party that had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office.

The two governments shared hostility toward the TPLF, but their military cooperation did not produce a lasting political partnership.

The earlier war devastated Tigray. Estimates put the death toll in the hundreds of thousands, including people killed in fighting and those who died from hunger and the collapse of health services. Human rights investigators documented massacres, sexual violence, forced displacement and other abuses involving forces on multiple sides. Eritrean authorities have rejected allegations against their troops.

A peace agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 ended the war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF. Eritrea, despite its substantial military involvement, was not a signatory.

The agreement halted large-scale fighting, but it left a difficult recovery process. Disputes over territory, security arrangements and implementation continued. Political divisions within the TPLF further weakened the peace process, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea deteriorated.

Renewed fighting has now exposed how far the former allies have moved apart.

The TPLF joined six other opposition groups in an alliance seeking to remove Abiy’s government. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of financing, arming and directing insurgent groups. Asmara denies supporting the rebellion and disputes Ethiopia’s account of Eritrean military operations inside Tigray.

Ethiopian troops reportedly reached Zalambessa, a town on the border with Eritrea, on October 13. Witnesses and a conflict monitor had reported Eritrean troop movements in the area earlier, although it remained unclear whether Eritrean forces were still present when Ethiopian troops arrived.

Those uncertainties matter. Reports of troop movements and competing claims do not establish the full extent of direct fighting between the two national armies. They nevertheless place the confrontation close to a border with a long history of conflict.

Both governments have taken their accusations to the United Nations Security Council.

Ethiopia invoked its right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, accusing Eritrea of crossing the border and occupying parts of its territory. Eritrea rejected that justification, describing Ethiopia’s position as a declaration of war and calling for international measures to deter Addis Ababa.

The dispute also extends beyond Tigray.

Ethiopia’s demand for access to the Red Sea has become a major source of tension. The country became landlocked when Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Abiy’s government describes sea access as essential to Ethiopia’s economic development and security, while maintaining that it seeks a negotiated solution.

Eritrea fears those ambitions could threaten its sovereignty, particularly around the port of Assab. Its government accuses Ethiopia of seeking sovereign access through force, an allegation Addis Ababa’s stated commitment to dialogue disputes.

The relationship had appeared to improve substantially in 2018, when Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki ended years of hostility. Their rapprochement helped earn Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Military cooperation in Tigray followed, but the partnership has since unravelled.

For people in Tigray, the immediate concern is survival. Residents have described food shortages, closed banks and limited medical care as fighting disrupts communities still recovering from the previous war.

Another sustained conflict would deepen those hardships. A direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea would also place further pressure on a region already confronting Sudan’s civil war and other security crises.

The population that suffered through the former allies’ campaign against the TPLF now faces renewed violence as those same governments turn against each other.