Kenya Playing With Fire “Inside the Alleged Plan to Destabilise Somalia and Push Turkey Out“

A coordinated campaign to weaken Somalia’s federal government, confine its authority to Mogadishu and dismantle its partnership with Turkey is being organised through foreign financing, armed pressure and political mobilisation, according to confidential sources.

The sources identify the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Ethiopia and Israel as external participants, working alongside Jubbaland authorities and figures associated with former South West leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.

They describe a strategy combining territorial advances, efforts to weaken regional political alliances and a campaign against Turkey’s presence in Somalia. Its ultimate objectives, the sources say, are to remove the federal government and bring to power political actors who would end that partnership.

Money, intelligence and military pressure

According to the confidential sources, the UAE is providing financing, while Israel is supplying intelligence. They say Emirati intelligence is directing money and weapons through Kenyan intelligence intermediaries to support operations inside Somalia.

The sources identify Al-Shabaab, elements of Jubbaland’s forces, Liyuu Police units and fighters loyal to Laftagareen as forces to be used in the campaign. Their description does not establish how these forces would coordinate or whether they would operate under a common command.

The territorial objective is to push federal authority out of areas stretching from the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders towards Mogadishu. Successive losses would leave the government increasingly dependent on its position in the capital.

Such pressure could affect more than military control. Losing access to regional centres and transport routes would make it harder for the government to maintain administrative authority, reinforce local allies and deliver development projects.

Bay and Bakool as the immediate focus

The sources place Bay and Bakool at the centre of the campaign’s initial phase. They say Laftagareen received millions of dollars from Emirati intelligence through Kenyan intelligence intermediaries.

According to the sources, the money is intended to weaken support for Aadan Madoobe among traditional elders, politicians and military officers. The objective is to fragment his support before further territorial advances.

They predict that forces associated with Laftagareen’s former administration could capture most districts in Bay and Bakool within days or a week, leaving Aadan Madoobe’s administration confined to Baidoa. That timetable represents their assessment of what could happen.

The sources also warn that Baidoa could become vulnerable unless the federal government changes its approach to South West.

The strategy they describe relies on political defections and military advances reinforcing each other. As an administration loses territory, local leaders may become less willing to support it. Those departures could then make further losses more likely.

Sanbaloshe’s role in Hirshabelle

The sources identify Sanbaloshe as the principal figure in the Hirshabelle component of the plan. They also name Laftagareen-aligned figures in South West and an administration described as “South East” established in Marka as participants in the wider effort.

According to the sources, fighting is intended to spread to Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle, creating several points of pressure on the federal government.

They also identify development projects in Middle Shabelle as targets for disruption. Damaging those projects could weaken public confidence in the government’s ability to translate security and political authority into practical improvements.

Turkey partnership under pressure

The sources describe Turkey’s removal from Somalia as a central objective.

They say the campaign includes efforts to portray Ankara as a colonial power supporting one Somali political faction. This narrative would accompany military and political pressure on the federal government, linking domestic grievances to opposition against its foreign partnership.

The intended sequence, according to the sources, is to weaken the government, remove it from power and secure Turkey’s departure under a successor administration.

The political significance lies in the attempt to make relations with Turkey a dividing line within Somalia. Development projects and other forms of cooperation could become targets because of their association with the government, increasing the stakes of domestic political competition.

Mobilisation inside Mogadishu

According to the sources, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Ali Khaire would begin anti-government mobilisation in Mogadishu as fighting approached Banaadir.

The timing would be consequential. Military setbacks outside the capital could place the government under greater pressure just as opposition activity intensified within it.

The sources’ description links those developments to a common strategy. However, political mobilisation by itself would not establish coordination with armed groups.

For the federal government, the scenario presents two simultaneous challenges: maintaining territorial control and preserving the political alliances necessary to govern.

Somaliland recognition as a further objective

The sources say renewed fighting would also be used to advance arguments for international recognition of Somaliland.

The intended argument would portray the rest of Somalia as trapped in civil war, using instability to strengthen the case for Somaliland’s separate recognition.

That objective gives the described campaign implications beyond a struggle for power in Mogadishu. It connects the outcome of local conflicts to Somalia’s territorial integrity and diplomatic position.

The immediate pressure point remains South West. If the losses predicted by the sources materialise in Bay and Bakool, the government would face a difficult choice over where to commit its forces while confronting the prospect of further fighting across the Shabelle regions and Hiiraan.